Early Warning for Regions in Uganda

By Josep Elunya

According to Uganda National Meteorology Authority (UNMA), by late February, rain had covered the entire country with the peak ex- pected around mid to late April through early May in most of the regions. Land preparation and planting is ongoing in all regions except for some districts in Karamoja region where there is delayed planting.

Acholi & Lango: Pasture conditions have improved in most districts to “favourable” due to early start of the rains.
Central I: Crop and pasture conditions have improved to “favourable” in all districts including part of the central cattle corridor.
Central II & East Central: “favourable” pasture conditions reported in both regions with planting ongoing as the rainfall is increasing. Elgon & Teso: Irregular rain started in late February and the region is entirely under “favourable” for pasture conditions.

Karamoja: Pasture conditions in the region have improved to “favourable” with rainfall increasing in early March with exception of Amudat, Moroto, Kotido and Kaabong districts that are under “watch”. Land preparation still underway in all districts.
South western: The region is under “favourable” pasture conditions and it is among the regions expected to receive substantive rainfall during this season. Planting of crops is already on-going in the region.
West Nile: The region is under “favourable” pasture conditions with improving rainfall during the rst ten days of March.
Western: Pasture conditions in the region have improved to “favourable” due to increased rainfall in last two weeks of February with exception of northern parts of Bullisa.

According to the satellite images indicates the spatial distribution of rainfall dur- ing the month of February 2018. West Nile, Karamoja, Lango, Teso, Acholi, Mbale and districts in cattle corridor regions not received adequate rainfall during the month of February 2018.

According to the satellite images indicates the spatial distribution of evapotran- spiration during the month of February 2018. South western and central I indi- cates relatively high EVT rate per day compared to other regions of the country during the month of February 2018.

According to the satellite images indicates the spatial distribution of soil moisture during the month of February 2018. West Nile, Karamoja, Lango, Teso, Acholi, Mbale regions including cattle corridor of the country indicates deterioration of soil moisture conditions (below the water holding capacity of respective soil type is known as “Plant Wilting Point”). This is manly due to absence of rainfall.

Temperature (Max.) – FEBRUARY 2018

According to the satellite images indicates the spatial distribution of tempera- ture (max.) during the month of February 2018. West Nile and Teso regions indi- cates maximum temperature while most part of the country indicates a warm weather during the month of February 2018.

https://www.smap.jpl.nasa.gov

 

RAINFALL OUTLOOK FOR MARCH TO MAY SEASOSN (MAM) — 2018

  • Eastern Lake Victoria and South Eastern: (Jinja, Mayuge, Kamuli, Iganga, Bugiri, Namayingo, Luuka, Namutumba, Buyende, Kaliro, Busia and Tororo) districts. The onset of sea- sonal rains is expected around late February to early March. This region has a high chance of receiving near normal rain- fall .
  • Eastern Central: (Pallisa, Budaka, Kibuku, Mbale, Sironko, Manafwa, Namisindwa, Bududa, Kapchorwa, Kumi, Kaberamai- do, Soroti, Serere, Amolatar, Butaleja, Bulambuli, Kween, Bukwo, Bukedea and Ngora) districts. The onset of seasonal rains over this region is expected around early to mid-March. Overall the region is expected to receive near normal rains.
  • North Eastern Region: (Katakwi, Moroto, Kotido, Nakapiri- pirit, Abim, Napak, Amudat, Amuria, and Kaabong) districts. irregular light rains are expected to set in around mid to late March, which will eventually lead to the onset of steady rains by early April. Overall the region is expected to receive near normal rains.
  • Eastern parts of northern region: (Lira, Alebtong, Kitgum, Agago, Otuke, Pader, Kole, and Dokolo) districts. The onset of normal seasonal rainfall is likely to set in around early to mid- March. Overall the region is expected to receive near normal rains.
  • Central Northern Parts: (Gulu, Omoro, Apac, Lamwo, Nwoya, Amuru, Oyam and Kiryandongo) districts. The region is cur- rently experiencing dry spells which are expected to continue up to mid/late March when the onset of the seasonal rains is expected to get established. Overall the region is expected to receive near normal rains.
  • North Western: (Moyo, Arua, Maracha, Nebbi, Pakwach, Adju- mani, Yumbe, Koboko, Terego and Zombo) districts. The onset of seasonal rainfall is expected around late February to early March. The peak of the rainfall is expected around late April 2017 and moderate relaxation is expected around mid-June. Overall, there are high chances for near normal with a ten- dency to above normal over this region.
  • South Western & Western Central: (Kisoro, Kabale, Rubanda, Rukiga, Rukungiri, Kanungu, Ntungamo, Mbarara, Kiruhura, Isingiro, Ibanda, Bushenyi, Buhweju, Mitooma, Sheema, Rubirizi and Kasese) districts and (Bundibugyo, Ntoroko, Kabarole, Kyenjojo, Kyegegwa, Kamwenge, Kibaale, Kakumiro, Kagadi, Hoima, Bullisa and Masindi) districts. The onset of steady rains is expected to be established by early March. The peak of the rains is expected around mid-April. Overall, there are high chances for near normal with a tendency to above normal over this region.
  • Central and Western Lake Victoria Basin: (Kalangala, Kampa- la, Wakiso, Masaka, Lwengo, Mpigi, Butambala, Kalungu, Buko- mansimbi, Gomba, and Mitiyana) districts. The onset of sea- sonal rains in this region is expected early March and thereaf- ter, rains are likely to intensify with the peak occurring around mid to late April. Overall the region is expected to receive near normal rains.
  • Western Parts of Central & Eastern parts of Central: (Nakasongola, Luwero, Kyankwanzi, Nakaseke, Kiboga, Mu- bende, Sembabule, Lyantonde, Kyotera and Rakai) districts and (Mukono, Buikwe, Kayunga, Buvuma) districts. Onset rains is likely to established around early March. The peak of rains is likely to occur around mid-April. Overall, there are high chances of near normal rainfall over this region
  • MARCH TO MAY (MAM) SEASONAL RAINFALL OUTLOOK

Overall, there is an increased probability for near normal rainfall over much of Uganda, except the western sector of the country which is expected to receive normal to above normal rainfall. There are high chances that East- ern Karamoja region, parts of Isingiro and Rakai, and parts of Pakwach and Nebbi are expected to experience below normal rainfall. during this season.

Agriculture, Livestock and Food Security Sector: farmers are advised to make use of the seasonal rains by optimizing crop yields through appropri- ate land-use management. Farmers are also encouraged to plant enough food for both domestic use and for selling to emerging markets in the neighbouring countries.

Disaster Management Sector: Episodic ash oods might be experienced in some areas leading to loss of lives and destruction of property. Other disasters may arise from possible landslides mostly in mountainous areas of western, south-western and eastern Uganda as well as strong and gusty winds and lightning among others.

Water, Energy and Hydro-Power generation: Plans for optimization of power generation and distribution should be enhanced due to the expected increased discharge of seasonal rain water into the water bodies; areas where below normal rainfall is expected should practice water source pro- tection and management.

Infrastructure, Works and Transport Sector: The anticipated near normal rainfall patterns are likely to be occasionally accompanied by intense rainfall events that may lead to ash ooding in some localized places especially in Kampala city and other urban areas.

Health: There is need to increase disease surveillance due to expected up- surges of epidemics of diseases that are prevalent during rainy seasons such as malaria, cholera, bilharzia and Typhoid fever. Increases in lower respiratory diseases such as asthma due to humid conditions and allergies from some owering plants are also expected

Source: Office of the Prime Minister

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